Gill Capital Partners Thanksgiving 2024 Market Update
We would first like to say that we are deeply thankful for all of our clients, partners, and friends and colleagues. We sincerely hope that you have a peaceful and fulfilling thanksgiving. I think we are all thrilled that thanksgiving is upon us and, irrespective of political beliefs, that the election is behind us. The election outcome brings with it new information, policies, and potential investment strategies. The Gill Capital Partners investment committee has been working diligently to digest and synthesize all of the new information and what it might mean for investment strategies going forward. While this is an ongoing process as the landscape continues to evolve, we will provide a few initial thoughts for you to chew on. Before we get into that, however, we’d like to share some highlights from last week’s much-anticipated earnings report from the world’s largest company, Nvidia.
Nvidia reported third-quarter earnings that beat expectations, both on sales and profits, and delivered a better than anticipated forecast for the current quarter.
Revenue continues to surge at Nvidia, rising 94% from one year ago.
Nvidia’s gross margin rose to a whopping 73.5%
Nvidia is the primary beneficiary of the ongoing artificial intelligence boom. Its shares have nearly tripled so far in 2024.
Their newest chip, “Blackwell,” is now in full production and in the hands of its customers.
Nvidia CEO Jenson Huang said that “the new industrial revolution is underway amid the AI boom.”
The demand for Nvidia’s unique chips has been insatiable as all of the big tech companies are fighting to build and protect market share in the new AI industry.
Observations and Conclusions Post Election
As mentioned above, we are actively working to digest the new political landscape and decipher what it might mean for portfolio strategy moving forward. We work diligently to remove any of our own potential political biases and focus on the fundamentals and facts that we know really drive market performance. Though we continue to assimilate new information as arises, below are some initial observations.
New Political Landscape – Republicans won control of the white house and both houses of Congress, and with that comes a high likelihood for significant policy reform. Just how far President-elect Trump and his administration will push his campaign agenda before Congress and the financial markets reel them back in is yet to be determined. Many Wall Street supporters believe that his campaign promises were mostly just talk and that tariffs, immigration, and attacks on specific industries will end up being relatively minor. He has wasted no time, however, in testing his mandate with several controversial cabinet nominees, and the next few weeks will be critical in understanding the path of potential policy changes moving forward.
Our View - While historically the market has been generally agnostic to the political landscape, we do see potential risks rooted in uncertainty. Markets do not appreciate uncertainty, and too much change too quickly certainly has the possibility to create volatility. President-elect Trump is potentially enacting a series of economic policies that many strategists believe may raise the risk of increasing inflation and slowing growth. However, we do know that Trump is keenly aware of the stock market and often uses it as a measuring stick for his own success. That said, his fear of derailing the stock market rally might just mean a more measured approach to many of these policies.
What does this mean for Equities? – Many U.S. equities have moved higher following the election. Big tech and financials are leading the way higher as they are now expecting that the reduction in the corporate tax rate will be made permanent. Additionally, they are expecting a loosening in the regulatory environment. Both of these variables are expected to increase profitability across Wall Street. Stocks that have not fared well since the election include healthcare, pharma, defense and other government contractors. Analysts are looking at uncertainty across the healthcare system and the likelihood of a reduction in defense spending as part of expected cuts in Federal Government spending. International stocks have not fared well since the election either, as the anticipation of a stronger dollar and increased tariffs have hurt the prospects for international profits.
Our View – Again, much will depend on what actually happens versus what was promised on the campaign trail. However, the prospects for international investing certainly do not look as compelling today as they did prior to the election, irrespective of attractive valuations. Additionally, while lower corporate tax rates will be good for corporate profits, much of that is likely baked into current valuations. We recognize that U.S. stock valuations are lofty; The S&P 500 has been up 50% since early 2023 and we are now discussing adding back in portfolio hedges that we removed over the past couple of years.
What does this mean for Interest Rates & Bonds? – Interest rates have moved sharply higher since the first interest rate cut and continued moving higher following the election. Why? The formula that the bond market is looking at is as follows: a continued Strong Economy + Lower Taxes + Tariffs = Higher Deficits + Higher Inflation = Higher Interest Rates. This has pushed the 10-year treasury yield higher and bond prices lower.
Our View – Again, much depends on what reality looks like as opposed to campaign promises. However, as the old saying goes, “The bond market is smarter than the stock market.” Clearly the bond market is a bit nervous and is looking for clarity around policy specifics, which will be huge in determining where interest rates go next. We continue to think that this is an appealing time to invest in high-quality bonds with some of the best yields we have seen in many years.
We will keep you updated as we continue to work through new information. For now, however, we hope you’re all able to put politics aside and enjoy the Thanksgiving Holiday. Again, we are grateful for all of you!
As always, please let us know if you have any questions or concerns, or if we can provide assistance with any other financial planning matters including education, taxes, insurance or estate needs.