The Daily Difference: Market Update April 14, 2014

This week's economic calendar... Monday, April 14, 2014

• Retail Sales. As the weather improved (except here in Denver), so did consumer spending. Pent-up demand resulted in a 1.1% jump in retail sales, propelled by a 3.1% jump in auto sales. January’s estimate moved down to -0.6% (initially -0.4%), but February was upwardly revised to 0.7% from 0.3%...net effect of revisions was 0.

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

• Consumer Price Index. This one shouldn’t bring much excitement; the expectation is for an increase of 0.1% (the same as January and March).

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

• Housing Starts. Expectations are high for this number (965k vs. February’s 907k) due to an increase in permits in February along with improving weather. Given permit levels, multifamily units should be the main driver of any increase.
• Industrial Production. After February’s unexpected jump, many are expecting a reversion to the mean; as a result, the consensus forecast is for an increase of 0.4%.

Thursday, April 17, 2014

• Jobless Claims. After last week’s spectacular numbers, many are expecting new claims to come in at 312k, slightly below the 4-week moving average. Most think last week’s number was an anomaly (likely due to Easter holiday hiring), although they expect the 4-week moving average to keep moving down.